More Mauer Thoughts

With Joe Mauer's average down to .384 (before going 1-for-2 so far tonight), I am compelled to note an observation or two.

Part of the reason he is "slumping" is that he has lost just over 1% of his strength since he came off the DL.

How do I figure?

Consider tonight he hit a double off the top of the wall in left. A month ago, that ball lands in the second row. Of course, that helped his average, but last night he flew out to that same wall. A month ago, that ball lands in row one.

We're talking about as little as a four-foot difference in power. Those four feet cost him two home runs in as many nights. That's just a little over 1% on a 370-foot-or-so fly ball.

Some wise physics guy might correct my math, and calculate the actual percentage of strength necessary to equate 1% in distance. But you get the idea.

Some wise guy might also suggest that maybe he just didn't "get" those two pitches. I dunno...I have seen him fly out deep to the opposite field quite a bit lately. I can't help but wonder how many more home runs or doubles he would have had he not lost that 1%.

(Right now, Mauer just singled to left, and is 2-for-3 on the night.)

I look at it as more evidence Mauer doesn't use steroids (not that I needed any). More than just helping build muscle, steroids help maintain it by eliminating the effects of "over-training." Mauer got stronger while resting from his injuries. Now that he is playing and traveling long and odd hours (cutting into vital sleep, no doubt), he is likely losing some of that strength.

Twins' TV commentator Roy Smalley had a nice-sounding theory about Mauer's early-season power surge, which was basically that sometimes good hitters just "find their swing" that turns deep flies into home runs, almost subconsciously, without even trying. I like my theory better.

One thing's for sure, and I noticed this when I saw him fly out deep to left twice against Boston at the dome earlier this year: if Mauer were ever to play for the Bosox while still in his prime, he'd be a surefire .400 hitter. All three of the fly outs I've mentioned tonight (plus the double), and many others I've seen this year, would have at least clanked off the Big Green Monster, if not cleared it altogether.

OK, maybe not "surefire," because he wouldn't have the advantage of artificial turf-aided singles. It would be interesting to anecdotally tally how many Green Monster hits Mauer loses in the dome, vs. hits gained from the turf.

Let's hope that deal never happens, though. Boston has taken many of our pro sports heroes; but Mauer was home-grown, so I don't think it will.

(Update: Of course, a half hour later, Mauer just hit one in the third row to left field. I stubbornly contend that would have been row five a month or two ago. At least I've anti-jinxed him now. (But re-jinxed him with that comment.))